easy · FRM Part 1

If an analyst says a return series has 'fat tails,' what does this imply for a risk model based on the normal distribution?

  1. The model's Value at Risk (VaR) will be exactly equal to Expected Shortfall (ES).
  2. The model will systematically understate the probability of extreme losses.
  3. The model will overstate the likelihood of returns near the mean.
  4. The model will provide overly conservative capital requirements.

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