hard · FRM Part 1
A risk analyst is checking a VAR model's performance via backtesting. Over the last 250 days, the portfolio experienced 8 exceptions at the 99% confidence level.
If the expected number of exceptions is 2.5, what is the likely conclusion?
- The model is perfectly calibrated since 8 is a small number.
- No conclusion can be drawn without knowing the size of the losses.
- The model is overstating risk, as there were too many exceptions.
- The model is understating risk, as the number of exceptions is significantly higher than expected.
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