hard · FRM Part 1

A bank finds that its 1-year cumulative probability of default for a BB-rated borrower is 3%, and if the borrower survives the first year, the conditional probability of default in the second year is 5%.

What is the 2-year cumulative probability of default?

  1. 15.00%
  2. 4.00%
  3. 8.00%
  4. 7.85%

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