hard · Frm Part 2 Market Risk

A bank's internal VaR model at the 99% confidence level produces 7 exceptions over 250 days. The exceptions occurred on the following days: 12, 13, 15, 154, 155, 156, and 157.

Which statement correctly evaluates the model's performance according to the Christoffersen and Basel frameworks?

  1. The model passes the unconditional coverage test because 7/250 is not statistically different from 0.01 at the 95% confidence level.
  2. The Basel framework automatically imposes the maximum 0.85 multiplier increase because the exceptions are clustered.
  3. The model is in the Basel Green Zone because the total count of 7 is less than the 10 required for the Red Zone.
  4. The model is in the Basel Yellow Zone and likely fails the Christoffersen independence test due to clustering.

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