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hard · GMAT Quantitative Reasoning

A weld is defective with prior probability 0.1. A first screen flags defectives with probability 0.8 and healthy lots with probability 0.3. A second independent audit flags defectives with probability 0.7 and healthy lots with probability 0.2.

Given that both screens flag the lot, what is the probability it is defective?

  1. 0.560
  2. 0.100
  3. 0.509
  4. 0.229
  5. 0.491

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