medium · GMAT Verbal

Proponents of central-bank independence argue that insulating monetary policy from elected officials produces lower average inflation. The reasoning rests on a credibility problem: politicians facing elections are tempted to stimulate the economy with easy money for short-run gains in employment, accepting inflation that arrives later. Anticipating this, the public builds higher inflation expectations into wages and prices, so the economy ends up with elevated inflation but no lasting employment benefit. An independent central banker, shielded from electoral pressure and charged narrowly with price stability, faces no such temptation; the public, trusting this, holds expectations down, and inflation falls without sacrificing output. Critics counter that the correlation between independence and low inflation may not be causal. Countries that prize price stability, they argue, both grant their central banks independence and pursue disciplined policy for the same underlying reason—a cultural aversion to inflation—so independence may be a symptom of the preference rather than its cause. The dispute is difficult to settle because the very conditions that lead a society to insulate its central bank are entangled with the conditions that would keep inflation low regardless.

The critics' position described in the passage primarily challenges the proponents' argument by

  1. denying that high inflation expectations can become embedded in wages and prices.
  2. arguing that independent central bankers are in fact subject to the same electoral temptations as politicians.
  3. proposing that an unobserved common factor may account for both central-bank independence and low inflation.
  4. contending that low inflation is achieved only at the cost of higher unemployment.
  5. asserting that politically controlled monetary policy produces lower inflation than independent policy does.

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