hard · Market Microstructure mmf-core

The S&P 500 index is at $5,000. The risk-free rate is 5%, the dividend yield is 1.5%, and a futures contract expires in 60 days.

If the observed futures price is $5,035 and round-trip transaction costs are $3.0 index points, is there an arbitrage opportunity?

  1. No, because $5,035 is within the no-arbitrage band.
  2. Yes, buy the futures and sell the cash basket.
  3. Yes, sell the futures and buy the cash basket.
  4. Yes, but only if the dividend yield increases.

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