medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
Price in CL breaks below the overnight low of $72.00 with a Δ of -1,200. However, 5 minutes later, a bar forms with a Δ of +1,500 and a stacked buying imbalance that pushes price back to $72.10.
What does this 'failed breakout' imply about the overnight level?
- The market is in a 'Gap-and-Go' bearish phase and the pullback is a selling opportunity.
- The auction remains unfinished at the overnight low, so price should return and retest $72.00 again.
- The sellers have kept control of the tape and are simply waiting for a better price to re-enter short.
- The overnight low was used as a 'stop run' to generate liquidity for large institutional buyers.
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