medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance

A 5-minute ES bar shows a high of 4,532.00 where 850 contracts were bought aggressively (ask volume), but the bar eventually closes at 4,528.50.

What is the likely market implication of this 'COT-at-high' signal?

  1. Bullish, because 850 contracts represents significant institutional interest in the high.
  2. Neutral, as the volume at the high represents standard market-making activity.
  3. Bearish, as massive passive selling absorbed the aggressive buying and trapped the buyers.
  4. Bullish, because the high Engagement Zone (COT) is near the top of the range.

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