medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
An ES bar opens at 4,520.00, reaches a high of 4,522.00, and closes at 4,518.50. The upper wick contains buying imbalances, while the body contains a stacked selling imbalance.
What is the likely result and stop-loss placement for a trade?
- A bullish move looks likely here; place a protective stop just below at 4,518.00.
- Wait for a confirmed 'Probe and Fail' pattern at 4,518.50 before placing a stop at 4,520.00.
- The market appears balanced here; place a protective stop at the nearby COT level of 4,521.25 instead.
- A bearish move is likely; enter short and place a stop one tick above the wick high (4,522.25).
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