medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance

A bar makes a new session high, but the footprint shows a 'Commitment of Traders' (COT) at the very high price level followed by a close near the low of the bar.

What is the most likely narrative for this bar?

  1. Initiative buyers are driving a healthy uptrend.
  2. Sellers are exhausted and price is consolidating for a further move up.
  3. Aggressive buyers at the high are now trapped.
  4. HFT market makers are providing equal liquidity on both sides.

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