medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
A gap-up open occurs in the ES at 4525.00 (yesterday's close was 4510.00). The first 5 minutes show a stacked selling imbalance at the open price and a -1200 delta.
What is the most likely scenario?
- Trend reversal; expect the market to print a new session low below yesterday's close of 4510.00.
- Gap-and-fill; institutions consider the gap excessive and are selling back toward value.
- Exhaustion gap; the market will simply range around 4525.00 for the remainder of the session.
- Gap-and-go; the observed selling is just brief profit-taking that precedes a fresh rally.
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