medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
A gap-up open occurs in the ES at 4525.00 (yesterday's close was 4510.00). The first 5 minutes show a stacked selling imbalance at the open price and a -1200 delta.
What is the most likely scenario?
- Trend reversal; the market will make a new session low below 4510.00.
- Gap-and-fill; institutions consider the gap excessive and are selling back toward value.
- Exhaustion gap; the market will range at 4525.00 for the entire session.
- Gap-and-go; the selling is just short-term profit-taking before a rally.
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