hard · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
A trader identifies a 'Single Print Low' exhaustion pattern in 10-Year Treasury (ZN) futures.
What is the typical win-rate reality for such reversal setups?
- 40% to 55%, with profitability coming from a high risk-to-reward ratio.
- 95% or higher, provided the volume ratio is at least 30:1.
- Exactly 50%, making it a coin-flip regardless of market context.
- Less than 20%, as most single prints are immediately 'filled' by HFTs.
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