medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
The ES session high is $4,515.00 and the cumulative Δ is +4,200. Price makes a new high of $4,518.00, testing the overnight high. However, the Δ for the breakout bar is -800 and the cumulative Δ drops to +3,400.
What risk does this present to the trader?
- The market remains in a bullish 'Gap-and-Go' phase and should be bought aggressively on any dip.
- The overnight high is acting as a magnet pulling price back toward a 'mean reversion' target near session VWAP.
- A bearish delta divergence suggests the new high is weak and supported by thin buying or seller withdrawal.
- A genuine 'Stacked Imbalance' breakout is confirmed by the sharp increase in total volume traded at the new high.
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