hard · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance

A stacked-imbalance cluster (3 consecutive diagonal bid imbalances ≥ 300%) prints into a new session high, and price extends 8 ticks past it before stalling on a single bar showing a 70-contract sell imbalance with sharply declining total volume versus the prior three bars. An experienced reader labels this an 'exhaustion' rather than 'continuation' signal.

Which combination most rigorously distinguishes exhaustion from a healthy continuation imbalance here?

  1. Continuation requires the diagonal imbalances to remain on the bid (buy) side with stable or rising volume; this print flipped to a sell-side diagonal imbalance while volume contracted, meaning the initiative that drove the move could no longer find willing sellers and is failing on thinning participation.
  2. Exhaustion is confirmed purely by the single 70-contract sell imbalance regardless of volume, because any opposite-side imbalance at an extreme always reverses the prior trend.
  3. Because the cluster printed a new high, the stacked bid imbalances guarantee continuation, and the sell imbalance is noise from a single large responsive seller that will be re-absorbed.
  4. Rising total volume on the final bar combined with the sell imbalance would be the exhaustion tell, so the declining volume here actually argues for continuation.

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