medium · Order Flow Analysis footprint-delta

A VWAP calculation for ES at mid-day shows price at 4507.00, which is exactly at the -2σ band (VWAP is 4515.00). A 5-minute bar shows a COT at the low, positive delta of +850, and a bullish close.

What is the priority of this trade setup?

  1. Low priority; the market is currently viewed as being in a downtrend, since price sits below VWAP.
  2. High priority for a short; the -2σ level often acts as a breakout trigger for accelerated further selling.
  3. Medium priority; wait for price to retest the VWAP mid-line near 4515.00 before entering a new position here.
  4. High priority; price is statistically cheap and the footprint confirms aggressive buyers are entering.

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