hard · Poker Theory Foundations

What is the primary danger of using the 'Rule of 4' on the flop when you are not all-in?

  1. It assumes you will see both cards for free, ignoring potential turn bets
  2. It falls into the Absolute Value Trap of the flush draw
  3. It ignores the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of the chips already in the pot (under this line)
  4. It overestimates your equity by double-counting backdoor draws

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