hard · Poker Theory Fundamentals

Scenario: Game: No-Limit Hold'em | Format: Cash Game | Blinds/Antes: 1/2, no ante | Effective Stacks: 100 bb | Hero Position: Big Blind | Pot Size: 100 bb. On a river board of K♥ 9diamond 4♣ 2♠ J♣, the Button bets 75 bb into a 100 bb pot. Hero holds K♣ Q♣. If Hero's database shows this specific opponent bluffs only 15% of the time in this node, what is the expected value (EV) of a call compared to the equilibrium requirement?

1. EV = -12.5 bb; Hero should fold because the bluff frequency is below the 30% required equity.
2. EV = -30 bb; the large bet size makes calling an automatic error regardless of frequency.
3. EV = 0 bb; the hand is a pure bluff-catcher and thus indifferent.
4. EV = +25 bb; Hero must call according to Minimum Defense Frequency (MDF).

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