hard · Poker Theory Preflop
Hero (BTN) has bet flop and turn. On the river A♥ K♦ 8♣ 2♥ 3♠, Hero shoves 90 bb into 21.5 bb. Villain folds. What is the primary error in this 'over-bluff' against a typical population?
- Hero failed to account for the 'Rule of 4' on the river.
- Hero should have used MDF to determine the shove size.
- The 'Bunching Effect' makes the Big Blind more likely to hold an Ace. (under this line) (under this line)
- The required α (≈ 81%) is far higher than the frequency with which a filtered range folds Ax.
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