medium · Volume Profile Analysis profile-shapes
A trader is reviewing prior-day profiles. Yesterday showed a b-shape with the POC at 4,380 in ES and the Value Area High at 4,400. Today ES opens at 4,410 — above yesterday's Value Area High.
Under the value area rule, what is the initial expectation for today's session?
- The market will fill down to yesterday's VAL; value area rule mandates a full traverse to the low end
- If price accepts trade above the VAH and does not return below 4,400 in the first two periods, there is a high probability the market continues higher and does not fill the prior value area
- Opening above the VAH always signals a gap-and-go trend day; no reference to prior profile levels is needed
- The b-shape from yesterday means today will open-drive lower regardless of the opening price
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