medium · Volume Profile Analysis profile-shapes
A trader is reviewing prior-day profiles. Yesterday showed a b-shape with the POC at 4,380 in ES and the Value Area High at 4,400. Today ES opens at 4,410 — above yesterday's Value Area High.
Under the value area rule, what is the initial expectation for today's session?
- If price holds above 4,400, the value area rule nonetheless forces a complete fill of yesterday's value area all the way down to the VAL before any continuation higher is permitted
- If price accepts trade above the VAH and does not return below 4,400 in the first two periods, there is a high probability the market continues higher and does not fill the prior value area
- Opening above the VAH always confirms a one-directional gap-and-go trend day, so prior-session profile references such as the POC, the value area low, and the VAH itself can be safely ignored today
- Because yesterday printed a b-shape, today's session is destined to open-drive lower no matter where the opening price prints, since the b-shape alone is taken to guarantee renewed selling from the open
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