medium · Volume Profile Analysis profile-shapes
An index moves from 5,600 to 5,620 during a morning session, producing a P-shape profile with the upper value area between 5,612 and 5,620. The afternoon session produces a distribution centered lower, between 5,595 and 5,610.
What does the downward migration of value from morning to afternoon tell a volume profile analyst?
- Value is clearly migrating higher, because the afternoon distribution holding firmly above 5,595 confirms that the buyers retained decisive control of the whole auction right into the close
- The two sessions are entirely independent observations, so value-area migration from the morning to the afternoon carries no real analytical significance whatsoever in intraday profile work
- Value accepted in the morning was rejected by the afternoon auction; the market found a lower fair value range, suggesting sellers took control after the morning P-shape exhausted short covering
- The afternoon distribution confirms that the morning P-shape is now a permanent reference level, so the broader market is highly likely to climb back up and retest 5,620 before the end of the trading week
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