medium · Volume Profile Analysis profile-shapes

An index moves from 5,600 to 5,620 during a morning session, producing a P-shape profile with the upper value area between 5,612 and 5,620. The afternoon session produces a distribution centered lower, between 5,595 and 5,610.

What does the downward migration of value from morning to afternoon tell a volume profile analyst?

  1. Value is clearly migrating higher, because the afternoon distribution holding firmly above 5,595 confirms that the buyers retained decisive control of the whole auction right into the close
  2. The two sessions are entirely independent observations, so value-area migration from the morning to the afternoon carries no real analytical significance whatsoever in intraday profile work
  3. Value accepted in the morning was rejected by the afternoon auction; the market found a lower fair value range, suggesting sellers took control after the morning P-shape exhausted short covering
  4. The afternoon distribution confirms that the morning P-shape is now a permanent reference level, so the broader market is highly likely to climb back up and retest 5,620 before the end of the trading week

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