medium · Volume Profile Analysis reference-levels-migration

A volume profile practitioner tracks naked POCs from the prior three months on the NASDAQ 100. They observe that in 19 out of 25 instances, price returned to test the naked POC within 5 trading sessions.

Which property of volume distribution BEST explains this statistical tendency?

  1. Naked POCs are visible to all participants as the prior session's VWAP, so consensus memory causes systematic revisits
  2. The market is fractal, so any prior support or resistance level will be retested with equal probability within a fixed time window
  3. Naked POCs are retested because technical traders place limit orders there en masse, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy unrelated to volume structure
  4. The heavy volume concentration at a prior POC represents a broad zone of price discovery and two-sided interest that remains an unresolved reference for the auction; the market gravitates toward unresolved high-volume areas

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