Dual-Stage Bayesian Updates

Definition

Dual-Stage Bayesian Updates in plain English

Pull Dual-Stage Bayesian Updates when information arrives in two stages and you must update beliefs twice. Clues include First test then second test, update after each result, Bayes. Blueprint: Start with priors. Update after stage 1. Feed those posteriors into stage 2 as the new priors. Why it beats the long way: A single Bayes pass on both results at once often uses the wrong prior at stage 2. Micro-example: Prior disease rate 1%. Test 1 positive (sensitivity 90%, false positive 5%) lifts posterior to about 15%. Feed that 15% into Test 2 as the new prior; a single Bayes pass on both positives at once often uses the wrong stage-2 prior.

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