medium · FRM Part 2 Credit Risk
A bank is modeling the transition probabilities for a portfolio of European revolving credit facilities. The current 1-year transition matrix shows a 5% migration from 'Grade B' to 'Default'. The bank also uses a Credit Conversion Factor (CCF) of 40% for undrawn commitments.
If a 'Grade B' borrower has a $100 million limit and $60 million currently drawn, what is the impact of a transition to 'Default' on the bank's Exposure at Default (EAD)?
- The EAD is $41.8 million, representing the expected loss from the transition.
- The EAD increases to $76 million upon default.
- The EAD increases to $100 million because the transition matrix assumes a 100% drawdown in default states.
- The EAD remains at $60 million as the bank will freeze the remaining $40 million upon signs of distress.
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