medium · FRM Part 2 Credit Risk

An analyst is comparing two portfolios with the same expected loss but different default correlations. Portfolio A has low correlation, and Portfolio B has high correlation.

Which of the following is true regarding the risk of the senior tranches in a securitization of these portfolios?

  1. The senior tranche of Portfolio B is riskier because high correlation increases the probability of extreme tail events that can breach senior subordination.
  2. The senior tranche of Portfolio A is riskier because idiosyncratic defaults occur more frequently, steadily eroding the equity layer faster.
  3. The equity tranche of Portfolio B is safer because high correlation decreases the likelihood of any defaults occurring at all in most scenarios considered.
  4. Both senior tranches have identical risk because the expected loss (EL) of the two underlying pools is the same, regardless of the correlation structure assumed.

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