hard · Frm Part 2 Market Risk

An institutional portfolio manager uses the 'Hill Estimator' to estimate the tail index of a heavy-tailed loss distribution. Given the 50 largest losses (x_i) out of a sample of 2,000 days, the mean log-excess above the threshold u = $10m is calculated as 0.40.

What is the estimated probability of a loss exceeding $20m on any given day?

  1. 1.25%
  2. 0.15%
  3. 2.50%
  4. 0.44%

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