easy · GMAT Verbal Reasoning
The last five movies directed by James Miller have all been box office hits. His new movie is being released next week. Therefore, his new movie will definitely be a box office hit.
This argument is flawed because it fails to consider that:
- Box office hits are often determined by the time of year a movie is released.
- James Miller may well have worked with a larger production budget for this film than for his previous five.
- The new movie belongs to a genre entirely different from that of his previous five hits.
- Past success is not a statistically certain indicator of future results in the film industry.
- No film director in the entire history of cinema has ever produced six straight box office hits in a row.
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