easy · GMAT Verbal

A researcher notes that drowning incidents and ice cream sales both peak in July. They conclude that eating ice cream increases the risk of drowning.

Which flaw in reasoning does this illustrate?

  1. Treating a shared seasonal pattern as evidence that one event produces the other.
  2. Drawing a broad conclusion from a small, non-representative sample of observations.
  3. Relying on an appeal to authority rather than on the actual evidence at hand.
  4. Creating a false dichotomy between just two mutually exclusive outcomes.
  5. Assuming the very conclusion is already true in order to then go on and formally prove it.

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