medium · Order Flow Analysis absorption-exhaustion-imbalance
A 5-minute ES bar has a 'Commitment of Traders' (COT) at 4522.00 with 880 total volume. The bar's range is 4520.00 to 4522.00, and it closes at 4520.50.
What is the diagnostic interpretation of this COT location?
- Bullish COT-at-high: buyers clearly maintained full control throughout the entire bar formation.
- Neutral COT: the market is perfectly balanced at this exact location and neither side holds a clear advantage.
- Bearish COT-at-high: massive buying at the top was absorbed by passive sellers who then drove price lower.
- Absorption Breakout: the COT at the high marks the confirmed start of a brand new initiative move to the upside.
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