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Elephant herds are led by a matriarch, and researchers tracking herds through two severe droughts found that the age of that leader predicted how the herd fared. Herds guided by females older than about thirty-five lost almost no calves: these matriarchs had lived through earlier droughts and could still steer the herd to water holes they had last visited decades before. ____ herds guided by younger females, who had no such droughts in their own memories, lost calves at several times that rate. Which choice completes the text with the most logical transition?

  1. Accordingly,
  2. Furthermore,
  3. In contrast,
  4. Specifically,

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