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The Moreau investment portfolio holds a long-duration bond. Interest rates rise by 1%. The linear duration estimate predicts a 12% drop in the bond's price.

What does the concept of bond convexity tell us about the actual price change?

  1. The actual price will drop by more than 12%.
  2. The actual price will be slightly higher than the linear estimate.
  3. The actual price change depends entirely on the bond's coupon rate.
  4. The actual price will drop by exactly 12%.

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