medium · LSAT Logical Reasoning

Any candidate who wins the primary election goes on to receive a significant surge in private donations. Candidate Rivera has just experienced a significant surge in private donations. We can conclude, then, that Rivera must have won the primary.

The reasoning in the argument is flawed because it

  1. treats a condition that is enough to produce an effect as though that effect could arise from no other source.
  2. fails to consider that Rivera's surge in donations may have come before, rather than after, the primary was held.
  3. depends on the premise that donors contribute only to candidates they expect to win.
  4. treats the co-occurrence of a primary win and a donation surge as evidence that one caused the other.
  5. assumes that what produces a surge in donations for one candidate will produce it for every candidate.

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