hard · LSAT Logical Reasoning
For thirty years, every recession has been preceded by an inversion of the government-bond yield curve, in which short-term interest rates climb above long-term rates. Last week the yield curve inverted for the first time since the previous downturn. A recession is therefore likely within the next year or so. Analysts who wave away the signal are ignoring a remarkably consistent historical pattern.
The statement that a recession is likely within the next year or so plays which one of the following roles in the argument?
- It is an objection that the argument aims to rebut.
- It is the main conclusion, a prediction inferred from a historical correlation and a recent event.
- It is a premise supporting the claim that analysts should not dismiss the signal, and from which the argument derives its later warning to analysts.
- It is historical background identifying when the previous downturn occurred.
- It is the historical pattern on which the argument's inference relies.
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