medium · LSAT Logical Reasoning

A historian contends that the empire collapsed because its silver mines ran dry. In support, the historian points out that the period of the empire's decline lined up precisely with the years in which the output of those mines fell sharply.

Which one of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the historian's argument?

  1. The empire's armies had been steadily losing fighting capacity for several decades before silver output ever began to drop.
  2. Several neighboring empires whose own silver mines were similarly exhausted nevertheless did not collapse during the same era.
  3. Silver served throughout as the empire's single chief medium both for long-distance trade and for paying its standing soldiers.
  4. The dates assigned to the various stages of silver production rest only on rough estimates rather than on exact bookkeeping.
  5. Coins minted late in the empire's troubled history contained noticeably less pure silver than those minted earlier at its height.

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