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Two models explain how a literary fashion crossed otherwise separate publishing circles. Simple contagion predicts adoption first among writers with the greatest number of contacts, regardless of which circles those contacts occupy. Brokerage predicts adoption first among writers whose fewer contacts bridge circles. Records show that the earliest adopters had relatively few contacts, but nearly all of those contacts connected different circles; highly connected writers confined to one circle adopted much later.

Which one of the following is most strongly supported by the information above?

  1. The records show that interpersonal contact was unnecessary because the most connected writers adopted late.
  2. The records establish that cross-circle contacts caused every early adopter to adopt the fashion.
  3. The records favor simple contagion once cross-circle contacts are counted as more numerous than within-circle contacts.
  4. The observed order of adoption favors the brokerage model over the simple-contagion model.
  5. The records are neutral between the models because both allow low-contact writers to adopt early.

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