medium · LSAT Logical Reasoning

A political analyst argues: To win the upcoming election, a candidate must secure the endorsement of the Labor Union. Candidate Miller has just secured the Labor Union endorsement. Therefore, Miller will certainly win the election.

Which one of the following most accurately describes a flaw in the analyst's reasoning?

  1. It assumes that because one event precedes another, the earlier event must have caused the later one.
  2. It overlooks the possibility that the union's endorsement could repel more voters than it wins over.
  3. It mistakes a requirement for a particular outcome for something that, once met, guarantees that outcome.
  4. It relies on a key term that shifts from a political sense to a literal one as the argument proceeds.
  5. It treats the favorable testimony of an interested party as though it were neutral expert evidence.

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