Base Rate
LSAT glossary · Logical Reasoning
Definition
The underlying frequency of an event in the relevant population. Ignoring it can make striking evidence look more predictive than it is.
Base Rate in plain English
Start with how common the outcome was before considering the new evidence. A dramatic indicator can still be a poor predictor when the event itself is rare.
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Practice Base Rate
Which finding would most strengthen Passage A's position relative to Passage B's?
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