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A clinical study reports a correlation coefficient of r = +0.85 between daily exercise duration and cardiovascular health scores, with a p-value of 0.02.
Which of the following is the most accurate interpretation of this p-value?
- 85% of the variation in cardiovascular health can be explained by exercise duration.
- The probability of making a Type I error in this study is exactly 2%.
- There is a 98% probability that the research hypothesis (exercise improves health) is correct.
- There is a 2% probability of obtaining a correlation this strong if the null hypothesis (no actual relationship) were true.
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