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A researcher performs an experiment to determine if a new drug lowers blood pressure. After analyzing the data, a p-value of 0.04 is reported.

Which of the following is the most accurate interpretation of this finding?

  1. The drug lowers blood pressure by a clinically significant amount in about 4% of the population studied.
  2. There is a 4% probability that the observed difference occurred by chance assuming the drug has no effect.
  3. There is a 96% probability that the drug is truly effective for lowering blood pressure.
  4. The probability of making a Type II error in this specific study design is exactly equal to 0.04, or four percent.

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