medium · Project Management Professional predictive

Larkspur Health's predictive project has two threats and one opportunity with EMV values.

If the probability of the opportunity increases from 0.4 to 0.8, while its impact remains +$80,000, what happens to the required contingency reserve?

  1. The project manager should immediately spend the difference on new hardware.
  2. The reserve stays the same, as opportunities don't affect contingency.
  3. The required reserve decreases because the positive EMV offset has doubled.
  4. The reserve increases because the project is now more uncertain.

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